Chances Are…Adventures in Probability was my other pickup at Cody’s a few weeks ago. Michael Kaplan and Ellen Kaplan jointly authored this exploration of statistics, but the voice is consistent. Chances Are… picks through history with an eye on the odds. Skills with numbers, and misconceptions about numbers, affect far more than simply the roulette wheel, and the Kaplans enjoy underlining the importance. Math isn’t avoided, of course, but the point is more how math is understood and misunderstood.
Each chapter follows a theme. My favorite was Chapter 5, Securing, considering insurance. That may not scream exciting. But weighing the odds isn’t simply a requirement for gamblers. It’s a necessity for commerce on any scale beyond the village. Sharing and distributing risk, even catastrophe, doesn’t depend on good will, but math. Like the other themes, the story of insurance through history reminds us that there are no certainties, just better calculations of probabilities.
I’m mildly curious whether Michael and Ellen are brother and sister or something else, since they are not husband and wife.